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Temporal Generalization in Materials AI — What We Know About Model Aging and Drift
Artificial intelligence is rapidly reshaping materials science by accelerating property prediction, synthesis planning, and materials design. Yet most AI models for materials are developed and validated under implicit stationary assumptions, while real deployments unfold in time-varying environments where materials, sensors, and processes evolve. This review synthesizes what is currently known about temporal generalization in materials AI—the capacity of models to remain reliable as data distributions and underlying mechanisms change. We distinguish two dominant degradation pathways: drift, in which input statistics or input–output relationships shift over time, and model aging, in which learned representations become obsolete as systems evolve. Drawing on evidence across biosensing and wearables, electrochemical energy storage, polymer synthesis, automated laboratories, and industrial manufacturing, we summarize how temporal failures arise, how they are detected, and why they often remain silent until performance drops become consequential. We then evaluate mitigation strategies—including domain adaptation, incremental and continual learning, active data acquisition, uncertainty-aware prediction, and human–AI feedback loops—highlighting where they succeed, where they break down, and the constraints that limit their scalability in real-world settings. Finally, we identify key gaps: limited longitudinal datasets, weak standardization of temporal evaluation protocols, underexplored multimodal temporal fusion, and insufficient emphasis on prevention rather than detection. We conclude with a forward agenda for resilient materials AI built around lifecycle monitoring, benchmarkable temporal stress tests, and hybrid frameworks that integrate mechanistic knowledge with adaptive learning to sustain reliability over time.
Journal of Artificial Intelligence for Materials Science
Review | Open access | 18 July 2023 | Article: 31

Explainability Drift in Iterative Materials AI Workflows: A Conceptual Failure Analysis
The integration of artificial intelligence into materials science has accelerated discovery through iterative workflows that cycle through data acquisition, model refinement, prediction, explanation, and hypothesis-driven experimentation. While explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) methods enhance trust and scientific insight by elucidating model decisions, these explanations are not static. This manuscript introduces the novel concept of explainability drift: the systematic degradation, inconsistency, or divergence in the fidelity, stability, and relevance of XAI-generated explanations across successive iterations of materials AI workflows. Distinct from prediction-focused concept drift, explainability drift arises from evolving data distributions, model updates, feature space expansions, and domain shifts inherent to materials exploration. Through a purely conceptual failure analysis, we delineate the mechanisms underlying explainability drift, including temporal instability in feature attributions, erosion of surrogate model alignment, and semantic misalignment between explanations and emerging material knowledge. Drawing on recent peer-reviewed advances in XAI applications to property prediction, microstructure analysis, and generative design, we synthesize theoretical foundations to highlight why drift undermines iterative efficacy. The proposed conceptual framework organizes explainability drift into multidimensional layers—attributional, structural, and epistemic—offering a structured lens for analyzing failure modes without empirical validation. This framework emphasizes risks such as misguided hypothesis generation, diminished trust in AI-assisted insights, and inefficient navigation of vast materials design spaces. By conceptualizing explainability drift as an intrinsic challenge, the work advocates for theoretical advancements in sustained explainability to support robust, interpretable AI-driven materials innovation.
Journal of Artificial Intelligence for Materials Science
Original Research | Open access | 18 July 2025 | Article: 82
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