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Why Most ML Potential Benchmarks Overestimate Real-World Accuracy on Disordered Alloys
Machine learning interatomic potentials have become central tools in computational materials engineering, promising accurate and scalable predictions of alloy properties. Benchmarks in the field routinely report impressive accuracies, such as energy mean absolute errors below 20 meV/atom and low force root-mean-square errors, leading many papers to conclude that their models generalize well to alloy systems. Yet when these same potentials are deployed on real-world disordered alloys—such as binary solid solutions or multi-principal-element high-entropy alloys—the accuracy collapses, often by an order of magnitude. The root cause lies in the benchmarking pipeline itself: training and testing occur almost exclusively on ordered crystal structures drawn from databases of intermetallic compounds, while disordered configurations, which dominate practical applications, are never evaluated. This critical critique identifies four primary sources of systematic overestimation. First, the near-universal reliance on ordered training and test sets creates an illusion of generalization that fails the moment configurational disorder is introduced. Second, random or composition-based splits on ordered data allow models to memorize recurring structural motifs rather than learn transferable physics. Third, even when special quasirandom structures are employed as proxies for disorder, their periodic nature and limited sampling of local environments produce a misleading “SQS mirage.” Fourth, energy-only metrics mask severe force-prediction failures that render molecular-dynamics simulations unstable in disordered systems. These benchmarking flaws have concrete consequences: overconfidence among practitioners, misallocation of experimental resources, and slowed progress in high-entropy alloy design. By drawing on the literature, this article demonstrates that the ordered-to-disordered gap is not an edge case but a fundamental and under-reported limitation. It proposes concrete reforms—mandatory disordered test sets, configurational sampling protocols, and separate reporting of ordered versus disordered performance—to restore credibility to ML potential benchmarks. Until these changes are adopted, claims of “alloy-ready” potentials should be treated with skepticism. The field must move beyond ordered-crystal comfort zones if machine-learned potentials are to deliver on their promise for the compositionally complex materials that define modern materials science.
Journal of Computational and Data-Driven Materials Engineering
Original Research | Open access | 18 July 2023 | Article: 19
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